By Irene and Ricky Zhang, Keller Williams Realty Irvine. Data period: October 8–14, 2026 (Thursday to Wednesday). Published October 17, 2026.
Key Takeaways
- 29 Irvine homes went under contract from October 8 to 14, up from 17 the week before. Two were in Shady Canyon.
- 33 homes closed at an average of $765 per square foot. Closings have stayed between $750 and $800 for several weeks.
- 26 new listings asked an average of $861 per square foot, with single-family homes at $945. Most look overpriced for this market.
- The 30-year fixed rate held at 7.40% (Freddie Mac, October 15). If your home is vacant and has a mortgage, waiting for next year costs you every month.
This week's update is a day late. Tuesday through Thursday, Ricky was in Phoenix for Tom Ferry's team-level training, the top internal program in his coaching system. Ricky was the only Chinese-American agent in the room. A few thoughts from the training first, then the Irvine numbers for October 8 to 14.
Rates didn't move this week (last week we covered what 7.4% means for Irvine buyers). Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed average was still 7.40% on October 15, the same as the week before. A year ago it was 6.27%.
1. The question from the training that stuck with us
The room was full of leaders of large teams from across the country. Twenty or thirty agents counted as a small team. Plenty ran a hundred or more, a few over a thousand. One of the speakers was Jason Mitchell, whose team of more than 1,200 agents announced in July that it was joining Keller Williams, the brokerage we're with.
The slide Ricky keeps thinking about asked one thing: What's the biggest game you can play in 2027? If you go all in next year, how big can you go? We all say we want to get better. Fewer of us stop and picture where we'd actually be if we gave it everything. That's the question we're working through for our team right now, including how we grow deeper roots in Irvine. If you have ideas, or a goal of your own for next year, leave it in the comments. We'll come back to it this time next year.
A client once asked Ricky why our business keeps growing while the market is adjusting and many agents are struggling. Part of the answer is training. We spend roughly $40,000 a year on courses and coaching, more than a year of UC tuition. We have dedicated sales and marketing coaches, and everyone on the team is expected to keep learning. Some people call American training programs hype. A lot of it, if you think it through, is useful for the business and for growing as a person. We plan to keep at it.
2. 33 closings at $765 per square foot, still between $750 and $800
Irvine market data, October 8–14, 2026 (CRMLS, compiled by our team)
- Closed sales: this week: 33, average $765/sq ft; last week (Oct 1–7): 31, $789 ($760 excluding Shady Canyon)
- New contracts (pending): this week: 29 (2 in Shady Canyon); the other 27 listed at an average $810/sq ft; last week (Oct 1–7): 17, average list $847/sq ft
- New listings: this week: 26, average asking $861/sq ft (houses $945, condos $780); last week (Oct 1–7): 26, $774
- 30-year mortgage rate: this week: 7.40% (Oct 15); last week (Oct 1–7): 7.40% (Oct 8)
Irvine closed 33 sales last week at an average of $765 per square foot. Still under $800 and hovering around $750. We've said it a few times now: this is the new range.
Honestly, Ricky doesn't worry much about whether the closed average moves up $10 or down $5 in a given week. With a few dozen sales, the sample is small. What tells you more is whether buyers are still showing up.
3. 29 new contracts, and open houses are hot or cold
The signal Ricky watches most is foot traffic, starting with open houses. If nobody comes to open houses, buyers have stepped back, and prices have nowhere to go but down. As long as people keep showing up, prices will most likely stay in the current range.
This week 29 homes went under contract, 12 more than last week's 17 and a bit better than Ricky expected. Open houses were all over the place, though. Our listing at 124 Chant, a beautiful home, had a steady stream of visitors all afternoon. Some of our other open houses had nobody. The best homes sell in a week. Others sit for a long time and need one price and strategy change after another. Same city, very different outcomes.
Two of the 29 were in Shady Canyon, and both were sold by the same agent, someone deeply rooted in that community whom Ricky admires. Selling more homes there is a long-term goal of ours. It's also a reminder that luxury homes still sell when the price is right.
Take those two out and the other 27 were listed at an average of $810 per square foot. At that asking level, closings will most likely land between $750 and $800 again. Outside Shady Canyon, only one of the 27 was priced over $3 million, so the high end is still under pressure.
One commenter said prices could drop another 20% next year. Ricky doesn't see it that way, and said in the video he'd happily take that bet. Assuming the worst all the time doesn't help anyone, and nobody wants to see the market crash.
4. 26 new listings at $861 per square foot, and that's too high
26 homes came on the market this week, asking an average of $861 per square foot, way up from last week's $774. Single-family homes averaged $945, which is clearly high. A few view homes asked $1,300 to $1,400 a foot, but after going through the rest one by one, Ricky still thinks most are a little expensive. Condos averaged $780, which is reasonable. The homes most buyers can actually afford are the ones priced most realistically.
To sellers: a great layout, a nice remodel, a good location, the market won't necessarily pay for all of it. Testing a higher price is fine, but expect to adjust. We explained why in Low Inventory Won't Save an Overpriced Irvine Listing. Rates change their story every day, so stay close to the market and have a price-adjustment plan ready before you list.
One strategy Ricky strongly advises against: listing low on purpose and counting on buyers to bid it up. Almost nobody is bidding over asking right now. Unless you list at something absurd, like $1, you won't start a bidding war. Even $100 might not do it.
5. The year-end slowdown is a good time to plan
The end of the year is always slower. Next week Ricky is meeting two sellers who plan to list in January or February. They want to start now: what to fix, what to prepare, so they can list right away if the market picks up.
If your home is sitting empty, though, Ricky's view hasn't changed: list it now instead of waiting for next year. A big jump next year is possible but unlikely. Even if prices stay flat, a vacant home with a mortgage costs you more every day. On a $1 million loan at 7.4%, interest alone is over $6,000 a month, before property tax, insurance and HOA dues. Don't just compare today's price with what you paid. Money tied up in a house has a cost too.
Our take
Sellers: If the home is empty and has a mortgage, list now. Price off the last few weeks of sales. $750 to $800 a foot is the current range, and you need a clear reason to ask over $900. Don't count on a low list price to start a bidding war.
Planning to sell early next year: Start getting ready now (our permit guide helps if you plan any work). Repairs, decluttering, paperwork. When the market turns, be first out of the gate.
Buyers: Contracts are picking up and well-priced homes go in a week. If you find one at a fair price, go for it. If a list price is clearly high, you can wait and see whether the seller adjusts.
This is our read of the current data, not a guarantee. To talk through your own home, reach out to Ricky any time.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the price per square foot for Irvine homes right now?
From October 8 to 14, 33 Irvine homes closed at an average of $765 per square foot. The past few weeks have all been between $750 and $800: $760 for October 1 to 7 excluding Shady Canyon, and $758 the week before. With only a few dozen sales a week, the range matters more than small weekly moves.
New contracts jumped from 17 to 29. Is the market recovering?
Buyers are still out there, but it's too early to call it a recovery. Two of the 29 were in Shady Canyon. The other 27 were listed at an average of $810 per square foot, so closings will most likely stay between $750 and $800, and only one was priced over $3 million. Open houses are also mixed: some draw a crowd all afternoon, others get nobody.
Can I list low on purpose to start a bidding war?
We don't recommend it right now. Very few Irvine buyers are bidding over asking, so a low list price is likely to become your sale price. Price off the last few weeks of comparable sales and have a price-adjustment plan ready instead.
My Irvine home is vacant. Should I sell now or wait until next year?
If it has a mortgage and isn't rented, we'd list now. A big jump next year is unlikely, and even if prices stay flat, every month adds interest, property tax, insurance and HOA dues. On a $1 million loan at 7.4%, interest alone is over $6,000 a month. If you're planning to sell early next year, start preparing now.
About Irene and Ricky Zhang
Irene and Ricky Zhang are a husband-and-wife real estate team with Keller Williams. RealTrends Verified ranks Irene and Ricky Zhang the #1 small team in Irvine by both sales volume and transaction sides (2026 City Rankings, based on 2025 production). The two met at Procter & Gamble, where they spent eight years in Customer Business Development. They moved to Irvine in 2014 and soon started their real estate careers, and Irene was named Rookie of the Year early on.
Today the team brings more than a decade of real estate experience. Irene and Ricky specialize in Irvine's master-planned communities, including Great Park, Woodbridge, Turtle Rock, and Orchard Hills, with pricing based on recent sales, targeted marketing, and careful negotiation. They speak English, Mandarin, and Cantonese and work with local and international clients across Irvine and Orange County.
What Is Your Irvine Home Worth Today?
We'll put together a free home valuation and selling plan based on the latest sales of similar homes in your neighborhood. Call or text Ricky at 949-208-5555, email [email protected], or WeChat Rickyzhang426.
中文版：尔湾一周卖掉 29 套，新上市要价却涨到每尺 $861
Sources
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, October 15, 2026: 30-year fixed average 7.40%; 6.27% a year earlier: freddiemac.com/pmms
- Industry-Leading JMG Joins Keller Williams, Business Wire, July 13, 2026: businesswire.com
- CRMLS closed, pending, and new listing data for Irvine, compiled weekly by Irene and Ricky Zhang
Equal Housing Opportunity. Irene Zhang CA DRE# 01967217 | Ricky Zhang CA DRE# 01972236 | Keller Williams Realty Irvine | Regulated by the California Department of Real Estate. Market data in this article is based on our team's review of Irvine MLS closed, pending, and new listing records from October 8 to 14, 2026, and is provided for informational purposes only. This article is general information only and does not constitute legal, tax, or financial advice; confirm your specific numbers with your closing agent, tax advisor, or lender. If your property is currently listed with another real estate broker, please disregard this offer. It is not our intention to solicit the offerings of other real estate brokers. We cooperate with them fully.
