We went through the numbers for September 24 to 30 and didn't like what we saw. Prices dropped a notch, but that wasn't the worst part. The bigger problem is that fewer people are buying: only 18 homes went under contract all week.

A quick note first. Everything in these updates comes from the sales data. We're not trying to talk the market up or down. When the market is hot, people are happy to hear anything. When it isn't, some agents and sellers would rather we didn't say it so plainly. We run a business too, and we want the market to do well. But we'll tell you what the numbers say.

1. 28 closings at $758 per square foot

28 homes closed in Irvine this week, most of them sales that went under contract in early September. The average closed price was $758 per square foot. Last week it was $772 (excluding Shady Canyon; $798 with it), and two weeks ago it was $753.

A few months ago we were talking about $840 and $820 per square foot, and later we said $800 was the line to hold. It didn't hold. This week came in about $40 below $800. Prices aren't just bouncing around in one range anymore. They've stepped down a level.

Single-family homes are the bigger story. They closed at an average of $790 per square foot this week, compared with $876 last week (excluding Shady Canyon). Condos were the ones taking the hit before. Now house prices are starting to give, too.

2. Only 18 homes sold, less than half of early this year

What worries us more than the closed prices is the number of new contracts (pendings). There were just 18 this week. Early this year, Irvine was seeing around 40 a week. We're now at less than half of that.

More people are waiting and fewer are acting, so homes pile up on the market. Ricky has also mentioned that a lot of investment homes may come on the market next year. With demand slowing and inventory possibly rising, it's hard to see prices improving soon.

These 18 homes were listed at an average of $775 per square foot. Every other week we've tracked, homes going under contract were listed above $800. Last week it was $813 (excluding Shady Canyon). The homes that sold this time were the ones whose sellers were willing to price realistically. With list prices at $775, they'll likely close around $750, maybe lower.

None of the 18 was priced over $3 million, and only 2 were over $2 million. Entry-level homes that people need to live in are what's selling. The high end is clearly under more pressure.

3. 24 new listings, and houses asking $879 will be hard to sell

New listings were the one bright spot: only 24 came on the market, so inventory didn't grow much.

The average asking price was $821 per square foot: $776 for condos and $879 for single-family homes. Condo pricing looks reasonable. Houses at $879 per square foot are going to have a hard time. Houses closed at $790 this week. Asking nearly $90 more than that probably won't bring many showings.

A home that sits unsold also builds up days on market in the MLS. When the price finally comes down, buyers look twice and wonder why. Some agents will tell a seller "no problem, that price will work" just to win the listing. We'd rather not.

4. Investors aren't buying right now

A couple of days ago a seller asked Ricky: "My house has a tenant in it. Can I sell it now?"

Ricky's answer was direct. If all he wanted was the listing, he'd say yes. But there are almost no investors in the market right now. With mortgage rates this high and no clear read on what's next, very few people are buying investment property. A tenant-occupied home is harder to show, and an owner-occupant buyer has to wait for the lease to end before moving in. It's a tough sell.

The buyers we're seeing are almost all local people buying a home to live in. Investors are smart. They know where their money should go, and they won't step in now. When everyone is shouting about a crash and saying Irvine will fall to $500 or $600 a foot, that's when they'll quietly come in. Whether that day comes, no one knows. For now, we're not buying investment property ourselves either.

5. What we'd do now

Buying a home to live in: If you're starting a family or buying your first home and plan to live in it, you can buy now. You'll be there ten years, so it's about the long run, not tomorrow's price. We're still very confident in Irvine over the long term. There are 700+ homes for sale right now, about 650 resale homes plus 70–80 unsold builder homes. You have choices, and when you find a home with something special about it, you can negotiate a good price. There's no reason to wait until inventory is down to 200 or 300 homes and everyone is bidding over asking again.

Investing or bargain hunting: Hold off for now. Tell Ricky what you're looking for. This isn't the moment to buy, and when the right opportunity shows up, we'll let you know first.

Selling: Be rational, in two ways. First, if you really want to sell, price it realistically. A house asking $879 a foot like the ones this week won't get anywhere, and waiting until November or December only makes it harder, with next year possibly tougher still. Second, don't panic. There's no need to slash your price to get out fast. Irvine isn't that bad. The market is slow and adjusting, but anyone telling you Irvine will drop to $300, $400 or $500 a foot isn't looking at today's conditions.

Decide: if you're selling, sell at market price and do it now. If you're not selling yet, consider renting it out now. Wait until November and even renting gets harder. This is our read of the current data, not a guarantee, and every situation is different. Ricky is happy to talk through yours one on one.

One last thing

We've been selling homes in Irvine for 12 years. We've seen the good run from 2021 to 2024, and the hard years from 2017 to 2019, when plenty of homes needed six months of open houses to sell. We got through those years, and we're confident we can help our clients through this one. If you're thinking about buying or selling in Irvine, reach out any time.

Equal Housing Opportunity. Irene Zhang CA DRE# 01967217 | Ricky Zhang CA DRE# 01972236 | Keller Williams Realty Irvine | Regulated by the California Department of Real Estate. Market data in this article is based on our team's review of Irvine MLS closed, pending, and new listing records from September 24 to 30, 2026, and is provided for informational purposes only. This article is general information only and does not constitute legal, tax, or financial advice; confirm your specific numbers with your closing agent, tax advisor, or lender. If your property is currently listed with another real estate broker, please disregard this offer. It is not our intention to solicit the offerings of other real estate brokers. We cooperate with them fully.